No. 7 prospect will start and make his Major League debut tonight
Way back in March, I completed my first article/blog here on Learning To Fly, and it was about pitching prospect Chayce McDermott. I have always been high on the right-hander and I told you all to get excited about him because one day this season, he would join the Orioles and make an impact on the starting rotation.
Now, it is time.
Yesterday morning, he was on the taxi squad with rumors floating that he would appear at least once before the Orioles and Marlins completed their three-game set in Miami. Now, he will do just that with his contract having officially been selected.
He has been assigned the start on the mound tonight for his Major League debut.
I knew little about McDermott when the Orioles got him. He was one of Mike Elias' trade acquisitions out of the Astros organization in the three-team deal involving fan-favorite Trey Mancini. The more I watched him pitch, the more I realized exactly how lucky the Orioles got in that trade.
In his first full season in the organization in 2023, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 119 innings split between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. His WHIP sat at 1.151 and he uncontrollably garnered swings and misses with 152 strikeouts. That equates to an 11.5 K/9. I was baffled (in a good way) at how he seemed to effortlessly mow hitters down with strikeout stuff, a big 12-6 curveball.
I have not been able to get down to Norfolk this season to watch McDermott pitch but having kept track of his 2024 campaign online, he has continued to be a workhorse out of Norfolk's starting rotation and he has posted respectable numbers. He has a 3.96 ERA with a stupid 129 strikeouts in 91 innnings. His 7-inning effort on July 1 saw him mow down 12 Durham Bulls while allowing just one run.
He runs into trouble with not necessarily the hits or the long ball, but with command. His walk numbers are up as he has allowed 54 base on balls this season, the equivalent of a 5.3 BB/9. Each of his first three starts of the season included 5 walks a piece. That is why his WHIP is slightly elavated from last season. It currently sits at 1.429 which is not ideal but it could also be worse.
Regardless of command, which can be tutored and adjusted, there is a lot to like about McDermott. He has a diverse arsenal with at least four reliable pitches that he can pull out for outs at any given time. His two fastballs, a 4-seam and a 2-seam, sits around 95-97 MPH. His overhand 12-6 curveball sits in the high-70s with big late break that, when executed properly, locks hitters up. He also features a low-80s changeup that is best against left-handed hitters.
His stamina should also be at a good place. He averaged around 90 to 95 pitches per start, the most in one game being 109 pitches. He has breached 100 pitches three times this season. He averaged around 5 to 6 innings per start, the most in a game being 7 innings which was the 12-strikeout gem against Durham.
95 pitches in a 5 or 6 inning start may seem alarming. However, this should mean that McDermott's arm and his body is in good shape to ride deep and give the Orioles innings in a start. Yes, cutting down the walks and the base runners would help him levy out the pitch counts and innings, perhaps more along the lines of 7-8 innings and 100 pitches instead of that same pitch count in 5-6 innings. Regardless, the Orioles are letting him get near 100 pitches in Norfolk and he is still getting his work in. He should be able to get to 90-100 pitches, and there should be no reason for the Orioles to cap him any earlier if they do not have to.
McDermott will at least get the start tonight, but whether this is just a spot start or whether he gets his own place in the rotation will be determined in the coming days. It is worth noting that the trade deadline is next Tuesday at 6 pm EST, and the Orioles have eyes on rotation pieces including Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. That could mean that this is just a spot start for McDermott in order to give Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez an extra day of rest.
From my point of view, I would like the Orioles to give McDermott opportunities beyond tonight. In past years, the Orioles have proven to work well with unexpected unsung heroes in the rotation, whether they are top pitching prospects or not. I never expected Miguel Gonzalez, a Minor League journeyman, to rise up and become a mainstay in the rotation in 2012. I remember that like it was yesterday. The same applies to Steve Johnson who debuted the same year and spun a 2.11 ERA. I barely knew who John Means was until his breakout All-Star 2019 season. He was an 11th round pick who ended up being an American League Rookie of the Year finalist.
I want the same for McDermott. Yes, the Orioles can still acquire a big arm like Skubal and have McDermott work at the same time especially since aside from Burnes and Rodriguez, anyone can compete for a spot in the rotation. That was proven with Cole Irvin's move to the bullpen. This is what I have been hoping for McDermott, and it is his chance to continue his development but translate his Minor League success into a big league pennant race in Baltimore.
This is Chayce McDermott "chaycing" his big league dream.
Watch McDermott make his big league debut tonight against the Marlins on MASN. First pitch is scheduled at 6:40 pm from Miami, Florida.
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